The budget for 2024-25 has been presented in the parliament and is drawing mixed reactions. Of course, many of the reactions are on the basis of the political affiliations of the person concerned. This was a budget which people were looking forward to as it would indicate the development road map for the country that the new government had in mind. A large portion of the budget is a continuation of the past. Yet there is a lot in the budget which is new also. The voters in the recent elections have given voice to their concerns and the government has at least shown that the message has gone home. The budget has identified nine priorities which are productivity and resilience in agriculture, employment and skilling, inclusive human resource development and social justice, manufacturing and services, urban development, energy security infrastructure and innovation research and development. There can be no debate on these priorities as these are the areas which need reforms as well as resources and good governance if India is to continue on its growth path and aspire to become a developed nation at the earliest. Yet one cannot help but feel that these are honourable statements of intent but the road map or structure to achieve these is missing.

The biggest concern facing the country today is that of unemployment and poor quality of employment. The latter is responsible for low productivity and stagnation in real wages particularly in the rural areas. 83% of the unemployed work force consists of youth. In particular the level of unemployment is going up with the more educated a young person is becoming. The highest unemployment is amongst the graduates. This is evident by the vast number of young boys and girls applying for any government job that is advertised. The resentment shown by the youth who are on the streets protesting against an epidemic of paper leaks which have suddenly got exposed is a manifestation of the seriousness of the issue of unemployment. In recent past the Central Government has been in a denial mode about the existence of the problem and has been quoting selective data to show that the rate of unemployment is very low. The Ministers, officers and economists of Government of India have conveniently overlooked the fact that most of the increase in employment is in the agriculture sector and consists of self employed people including those who are unpaid workers. In any case, the issue of unemployment should not be buried under a whole lot of statistics and data sets. One only has to move amongst the people to feel their anxiety and frustration to understand the immensity of the problem.

Fortunately, by listing employment as one of the priorities the budget has at least recognised that a serious problem of unemployment exists. However, the solutions suggested do not inspire confidence. They seem to touch the problem at its periphery and one is not sure about their actual impact on the level of unemployment. The apprenticeship scheme is not a bad idea but it is likely to run into implementation bottlenecks. Also, their employability in the future will depend upon the kind and quality of training that industry will impart to them. The other two schemes regarding the Government paying the EPF of employees for two years at Rs. 3000 per month and payment of one month salary of employees up to Rs. 15000 are not likely to incentivise the industry to hire more employees. The industry today is becoming more and more capital intensive in order to have higher productivity and low costs. None of the incentive schemes proposed seem to have enough muscle to offset the gains that industry gets by substituting labor by capital. Skilling 20 lakh youth in 5 years appears to be much lower than what is required considering that according to the economic survey India needs to create 78 lakh jobs every year to cater to those entering the job market. The problem of unemployment is of such a huge dimension that it called for a frontal assault instead of these piecemeal and scattered incentives proposed. The minimum that could have been done was to enhance the number of days of employment and wage rate under MGNREGA and consider having a scheme on similar lines for the urban areas. The PLI scheme could have been amended to incentivise not only production but also creation of additional employment.

India cannot become a developed nation without the agriculture sector leading the way. The main demands of the farmers to give a legal guarantee for MSP and their indebtedness has not been addressed in the budget at all.  A lot of well intentioned statements regarding agriculture have been made without any concrete steps to raise the agriculture productivity, increase the research and development in agriculture and develop and network the agriculture markets. It seems that having been forced to take back the three new agriculture reforms due to their not being accepted by the farmers the Central Government is now fighting shy of considering structural reforms in the agriculture sector. Off course, reforms require taking all stake holders on board. The rural economy has not been given any significant increase in allocation in the budget.

The MSME sector is vital because it contributes maximum to employment after agriculture. The budget once again prioritises MSME sector but does not offer a tangible roadmap for its development. 99% of the MSME sector is micro in nature and this is more or less in the informal domain. This micro sector which is responsible for 97% of the employment under MSME is not able to take advantage of the credit guarantee scheme that has been proposed in the budget. Having a special bank for MSME’s would have been a good idea as in reality this sector faces a lot of challenges in obtaining credit from the existing system. Further, the issues of technology, marketing and delayed payments need urgent attention if this sector is to fulfill its potential.

To fully reap the demographic dividend the education and health sector needed new initiatives and a much higher allocation than what has been provided. The quality of education from primary to higher is abysmal but the budget has not suggested any project to improve the quality in a mission mode. Universal quality health coverage is still a distant dream. The budget speech has delineated both education and health as priorities but not enough appears to have been proposed in this direction. Also, the scourge of malnutrition does not get the attention it merits.

It is indeed heartening that India is the 5^th largest economy today and is growing at a fast rate. However, the low per capita income of the country must trouble the policy makers and a long term strategic response is required for this. The budget does not give any indication of this though it may be too much expect from an annual budget exercise.

To conclude, the budget has at least shown awareness of the challenges faced by India and prioritised key areas. However, neither the budget speech nor the allocations give an indication that these issues are being tackled. I only hope that future budgets would be able to come out with a more concrete roadmap to make India a developed nation.

IAS probationer Pooja Khedkar is in the news these days for all the wrong reasons. The social media as well as media is coming out with stories alleging various fraudulent ways in which she has managed to be selected for the IAS by the UPSC. In addition, every day a new incident about her misconduct or misdemeanor is getting reported. The UPSC exam which selects candidates for the civil service including the IAS has been revered as a symbol of virtue. It has been believed that this autonomous body manned by some of the most eminent academicians and retired civil servants has been over the years conducting the civil service exam maintaining the highest standards of integrity and probity. Now suddenly this one probationer has put all this earned reputation under a cloud and the system for selecting candidates for the highest government services is being questioned. It is indeed not only disturbing but shocking.

Nothing would have probably come to light if the IAS probationer Pooja Khedkar had not thrown her weight around when she joined Pune for the mandated period of district training. It was her overbearing personality and a mistaken sense of entitlements that apparently blew her cover. Having been an IAS officer I am well aware that a probationer under training is not entitled to any major benefits. She has to depend totally on the District Collector and it is up to the Collector to give any facilities to her. She cannot demand anything rightfully. In this case it appears that the probationer in question had an exaggerated sense of her powers and status as a trainee IAS officer. She evidently demanded an office, staff, vehicle and similar perquisites. She went overboard by using a private car and that also an Audi! The best of IAS officers even at the end of their careers cannot afford to own an Audi. She did not stop there. She installed a red beacon light on this car even though no IAS probationer is entitled any beacon red, blue or any other color on her car. There are clear rules prescribed under the motor vehicle act after a Supreme Court Judgment which defines the eligibility for sporting a beacon light on the car. Chief Secretary, Home Secretary and the District Magistrates are the only IAS officers in this eligibility list. Even more disconcerting is that Pooja managed to get a VIP number for her car and also exhibited on the car that it is a Government vehicle. I am amazed as to how as a trainee officer she could get the car from a contractor! She went further and forcibly occupied the office of a senior officer. Her conduct was not found acceptable by the District Collector who wrote against her to the Government and the storm broke loose.

Further, It has come to light that she was selected on the basis of a disability certificate and also a certificate of not belonging to the creamy layer under the OBC reservation category. Both these certificates are now being alleged to have been fraudulently obtained. Evidently her family and she herself own assets far above what a lower middle income family would own and She has refused to appear before a medical board for verifying her disability certificates. An inquiry has been ordered by the Government of India and the district training of Pooja Khedkar has been cut short and She has been asked to report back to the Mussoorie Academy. It the inquiry finds the charges against her are correct then she can be discharged from service.

Had it not been for her domineering behaviour may be all these other irregularities would not have come to light. You can say that she brought it on herself. Her sense of privilege and resourcefulness at the beginning of her career is unbelievable. If she has got selected due to fraud then it is a frightening thought that the hallowed UPSC selection process can be manipulated. I can only look back at my training year when I joined District Gorakhpur in UP as an IAS probationer with amusement. I recall having sent a letter to the Collector about my arrival and expected that somebody would receive me and take me to the Circuit House. At the station I looked around in vain but there was nobody. I got on to a cycle rickshaw and asked him to take me to the Circuit House. I thought a room would have been booked for me. But it was not so. I had to literally plead with the caretaker to open a room for me which he did taking pity on me. He, however, warned me that If I did not procure the allotment order by lunch time he would throw my luggage out! I dressed up smartly and reached the camp office of the Collector at 10:00 Am sharp. As expected I was not allowed entry till I drew myself to my full height and with as much confidence as I could muster disclosed that I was an IAS probationer. The chief orderly of the Collector appeared to be an old hand and instantly became respectful. He made way for me and ushered me into the presence of the Collector where with a flourish he introduced me “Sarkar, new junt sahib has come”. In UP young IAS officers on training and initial posting are called Joint Magistrates which in common parlance gets shortened to “Junt Sahib”. The Collector ignored my presence for a couple of minutes as he attended to his files. He finally looked up at me and I introduced myself “Sir, IAS probationer Alok Ranjan reporting for training”. He was not happy and muttered something to the effect as to why the Mussoorie Academy sends probationers for training without consulting the Collector. In a matter of fact voice he said “now that you have come you might as well sit down”.  I have never felt more deflated in my life. To cut the story short he passed me on to his Additional Collector for training and was kind enough to allot me a single room in the officer’s hostel. To reach the office I had to walk about a kilometer till a senior Deputy collector realized my predicament and offered to pick me up while going to the office. Beyond office hours, if I had to go anywhere then the cycle rickshaw was the only option. Yet I did not make any demands and neither did I feel upset. I got down to the task of doing my training and felt quite satisfied. I am sure most IAS officers have similar stories about their training period. Some fare better than the others depending upon the personality of the Collector.

I hope the controversy regarding Pooja Khedkar ends soon and if she is guilty of fraud then she should be punished for it. However, my greater concern is whether the UPSC system is being manipulated? Is Pooja the single exception or there are hundreds who are violating the sanctity of the selection process of UPSC by using forged or fraudulent caste, income or disability certificates. A thorough inquiry should be conducted into this. In these days of technology it should not be difficult to evolve a foolproof system of checking the veracity of the certificates required for various categories of candidates. Not only should this be done but made transparent and the citizens should be informed about it so that no wrong perception about the exam percolates in the society. Also, the faith in the civil service selection system must be reaffirmed so that people continue to trust the UPSC and believe that civil servants are selected on merit and there is no way in which mischief can be played with the system. Also, let the impression not go that IAS officers or civil servants are not honest. Most of them work with dedication and a sense of service to the nation with honesty and integrity.

The tragic loss of over a hundred lives in the Hathras , UP, stampede has shocked the nation. It is all the more disturbing because it was a tragedy that could have been averted and a needless loss of lives avoided. The incident has taken place and now the blame game has started. The Administration is holding the organizers responsible while trying to escape its own accountability. Government and opposition parties are trading barbs. Conspiracy theories are being floated and some are seeing the hand of anti-social elements behind this ghastly catastrophe. The Government has done the right thing by ordering a three member judicial commission to enquire into the matter and report within two months. Compensation of four lakhs each has been announced to the deceased. The media is reporting this news from all angles and experts as well as ordinary citizens are debating on how such a major mishap could have taken place. The people are rightly agitated. Top officers of the Government have reached the spot making bold assertions that the responsibility on the guilty shall be fixed and no one will be spared. This is the right response but one cannot help but feel a sense of Déjà vu. Haven’t we seen all this before? This is not the first stampede tragedy in the country and this is not the first one in which a detailed inquiry has been ordered and guidelines for the future will be promulgated. Alas, this may not be the last such   tragedy because human memory is short and citizen anger would be lost in time. Other issues will dominate the   media. Hardly anybody would bother when the inquiry report comes out. The administration will store these guidelines along with several other such documents and allow it to gather dust. Incidentally, the national disaster management authority (NDMA) has studied all previous such incidents and issued comprehensive guidelines on crowd control to avoid stampedes. Unfortunately, the NDMA wisdom would be languishing in Government record rooms and it would be a rare administrator who would have read it and applied it.

The story of the incident as it unfolds from news reports talks about a self proclaimed Godman called Bholey Baba who resigned his job as a police constable more than twenty years ago and took up the far more lucrative profession of becoming a Godman. Over the years he has amassed a huge following and that is why more than two lakh people congregated at Hathras to listen to him preaching and be blessed with divine grace. The organizers estimated the crowd to be around 80,000 and sought permission from the administration accordingly. This, by itself, should have alerted the administration as this is a huge figure for a gathering. Moreover, the administration should have known that the organizers have no scientific way of assessing the likely strength of the crowd and it should have been obvious that far more will land up at the site. This should have been kept in mind while making the arrangements for the function and deploying the police force. Eventually, on a rough estimate more than two lakh people assembled for the function. After Bholey Baba had given his discourse he told the gathering that if people amongst them had some serious problems in life they could get them resolved by collecting the dust of the feet of the Baba and applying it on themselves. The Baba and his entourage began to leave the meeting site. A mass of people pushed forward to get a closer look at the Baba and some competed with one another to collect the dust of the feet of the self styled Godman. The volunteers of the organizers on duty tried to stop them and all hell broke loose. Men, women and children jostled, pushed and fell to the ground to be trampled upon by a crowd in panic and total disarray. As it happens in such cases it was the weakest namely the women, children and the elderly who lost their lives due to suffocation.

There were no arrangements to handle the medical emergency and the nearby trauma center did not have Doctors on duty at that time. The whole sequence of events shows that the administration had not adequately planned or prepared for the event and standard SOP’s of crowd management were not in place. The administration claims that they were responsible for arrangements outside the pandaal and the inside management was the responsibility of the organizers. To me this sounds strange because in a gathering of such huge dimensions the administration and the police cannot let the organizers who have a few untrained volunteers to manage the show. The first thing required to manage such an event is to have detailed discussions between the administration, police and the organizers and plan out everything from entry points, exit points, seating arrangements and circulation space. The responsibility of both the organizers and the police needs to be clearly delineated and it is the police which must have things in its control and the organizers could at best be expected to assist them. The whole approach, it appears, was most callous.

Crowd management is both a science and an art. One has to first understand the nature of the event. An event could be religious, youth festival, sports meet, political rally or any other. The type of crowd depends upon the nature of the event and varies according to age, gender or economic strata. It is also important to ascertain whether the motive of the crowd is social, political, religious or entertainment. The crowd management strategy depends upon these factors and the risk assessment varies accordingly. The suitability of the venue for a gathering of such size has to be clearly ascertained. Thereafter, it must be ensured that there are multiple entry and exit points and also there is enough space for people to enter or leave the premises. Further there has to be enough circulation space within the pandaal for ease of movement. Police force along with representatives of the organizers must be stationed at crucial points to control the flow of people. Greatest caution has to be exercised at the time when the function ends as there is a tendency for people to try and move out in a hurry. In essence, an integrated approach to crowd management is required. The best example that I have seen of this has been at the various Kumbh Melas where millions take a dip in the Ganges on the auspicious days. The administration must have enough idea of crowd psychology to be able to recognize the flash point when a crowd gets transformed into a mob.

The administration in such events must have a contingency plan to deal with the situation when things go wrong. In fact planning for such events requires thinking up of the worst case scenarios and having a response ready for them. This includes planning for a medical emergency by having ambulances stationed nearby and having the nearest hospital in a state of readiness. In this particular case it appears that there was serious under deployment of police force which is asking for trouble. For this reason it is imperative that officers of the administration and police visit the proposed site of the function and then make a practical scheme for deployment of the force. A most important factor often ignored is a proper briefing to be given to the police force. A complete mock drill conducted before the event makes sure that there are no issues of miscommunication. Installation of CCTV cameras and monitoring the crowd through them is essential as is having a functional public address system to constantly issue instructions to the public and the police force.

Those who have lost their lives will not come back. It is always the poorest who suffer. One can only express the deepest sadness for the departed souls. We can only hope and plan for the future to ensure that such tragedies which are eminently avoidable never recur again. Those responsible must be punished. We must also look within our society and consider how a scientific temper can take the place of superstation and blind faith.

After thirteen long years of wait India has finally won a World cup cricket final. The entire nation is exuberant with joy. All the players of team India need to be complemented and felicitated for their excellent performance. Last year the team had performed brilliantly in the one day cricket world cup. They won all their matches till the agonizing heart-break in the finals. The slumped and tearful figure of captain Rohit Sharma made the entire country weep. Barely nine months after that Rohit Sharma has led the Indian team to a great world cup victory. There are tears again but those of joy.

India once again galloped to the finals without losing a match but so did South Africa. The finals had all the potential of being an exciting, pulsating and a nerve racking affair. The whole of India was keeping its fingers crossed. India won the toss and elected to bat and the cricket pundits opined that it was a good bating wicket. India started off beautifully with Kohli sending Jansen to the ropes thrice in the first over and then Rohit followed with two consecutive fours. So far, so good but then suddenly there was a dramatic change in the situation. Rohit Sharma, Rishabh Pant and Surya Kumar Yadav were back in the pavilion with only 34 on the board. The sinking feeling had begun to set in. Virat Kohli had not batted well throughout the tournament but as the adage goes that when things become tough the tough get going, Kohli put his head down and played a masterly sheet anchor role by making 76. Deservedly he was declared the man of the match. On the other end captain Rohit Sharma and coach Rahul Dravid took a masterly decision and sent in Axar Patel ahead of other batsmen. The decision paid off and Axar launched into an aggressive 47 and rebuilt the Indian innings. Shivam Dubey also did his job and India reached 176. One could not suppress  a feeling that India was 20 runs short of what could have been a sure shot winning score. Things were now evenly balanced and it could be anybody’s game.

Bumrah is easily the best fast bowler in business and Arshdeep complemented well and South Africa lost two early wickets. De Kock and Stubbs stabilized things for South Africa but India dismissed them at the right time. At this stage it was advantage India. Then came Klassen and blasted the Indian spinners all over the park and in the company of David Miller wrested the match out of India’s hands. Thirty runs required of thirty balls and it all looked so easy for South Africa. But this Indian team has tremendous self belief. They still felt they could win and it showed in their intensity. Hardik Pandya lured Klassen into nicking one behind to the wicket keeper and Klassen left after scoring a brilliant 52. This was the moment when the initiative had to be seized and there was nobody better than Bumrah to do this. Two magnificent unplayable overs from Bumrah and the wicket of Jansen put South Africa on the back foot. The 19^th over bowled by Arshdeep was also economical and South Africa were left to get 16 in the last over. Not easy but David Miller was there and we all knew that Miller could really hit.

Hardik Pandya confidently lumbered up to bowl the last over. David Miller went for a big one of the very first ball and the ball well struck went like a rocket towards the boundary. A six at this stage would have taken the match out of India’s hands. At the boundary Surya Kumar Yadav had different ideas. He took the catch of the century making old timers like me remember the catch taken by Kapil Dev in the 1983 world cup final to dismiss Vivian Richards. He showed great anticipation and presence of mind and the match swung India’s way. The next five balls went by without anything unprecedented happening and Pandya kept his cool. India won by seven runs and the world cup was theirs. Full credit must go to the captaincy of Rohit Sharma and strategizing of Rahul Dravid. Each player performed to his potential. It was a happy team and happy teams succeed. The entire nation was out in the streets dancing with joy.

Rohit, Virat and Jadeja announced their retirement from T-20. We will miss them but they gave us great moments of joy and made the country proud. Farewell heroes. The good thing is that India has a backup of promising players to make the future as bright as the present.

The most discussed and debated topic in India today is about the status and level of unemployment in the country. There are forceful views being expressed on both sides of the issues during the election campaigns and also it is a hot topic of disagreement between economists. Experts are quoting data to show that there is growth without employment in India while there are an equal number shelling out statistics to show that the problem of unemployment is being over stated and in fact there is an increase in both employment and labour force participation rate. The beauty of statistics is that you can selectively use it to argue in favour of increasing unemployment or the reverse.

India is enjoying a demographic advantage which is likely to last for another thirty years.  We have 27% of our population which can be categorized as youth with the median age of the country being 29. One has to come out of the data analysis to see for oneself the anxious faces of the educated youth to realise that their major concern is whether they will get employment and will the quality of employment they get be commensurate with their level of qualifications? Only if the youth is able to get the desired quality of jobs will it realise the demographic dividend and propel India on the path of rapid economic growth so that it occupies its deserving position amongst the developed nations and not gets snared in the middle income trap. India is the cynosure of all eyes because of its dramatic growth rate of 7% which is amongst the highest in the world and we are on the path of becoming the third largest nation in terms of GDP in the next 4 to 5 years. If we have to become a developed nation within the next 25 years we have to grow at an even faster growth rate of about 8% or more per annum and this would only be possible if we can devise a strategy to see that this growth is accompanied with growth in employment so that the aspirations of the youth find expression and their energy and higher productivity makes the dream of an inclusive and developed India possible in the near future.

Recently the India employment report 2024 was published by the institute for human development on labour and employment issues which was primarily based on an analysis of the data from the national sample surveys and the periodic labour force surveys between 2000 and 2022.  They arrived at some paradoxical inferences. They find that the key labour market indicators like labour force participation rate, the work force participation rate and the unemployment rate so long term deterioration between 2000 and 2019 but thereafter it has shown improvement. The female labour market participation rate has surprisingly shown an upward trend from 2019 onwards particularly in rural areas despite the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. However, this is explained by the fact that after 2019 the trend in the Indian labour market to transit from agriculture into non- farm sectors has been halted and even reversed. There is a discernible rise in share of agriculture employment as well as an increase in the absolute size of the agricultural work force. The matter of concern is that nearly two-thirds of the incremental employment after 2019 comprised of self employed workers amongst whom unpaid woman family workers predominate. The share of regular work has been declining. This has been further reflected in the fact that the real wages and earnings of regular workers has remained stagnant or declined.

The report also finds that the employment in India is of a predominantly casual and self employed nature with more than 82% of the work force engaged in the informal sector. This implies that employment and India is of a poor quality and it is for this reason that the employment condition index remains on the lower side. Due to increasing mechanisation and capital use the employment generation in India has become more and more capital intensive which is contrary to the labour market needs of the country. Digitalization and introduction of new technology are changing the structure of industrial employment further. This has also been accompanied by a rise in the number of gig workers who have hardly any social security. The increase in capital intensity of industry led to an improvement in labour productivity and the increasing growth rate has been closely linked to technological advancements that have favoured capital intensive production. The employment in manufacturing has expanded by only 1.7% between 2000 and 2019.

The services sector has been the prime mover of India’s growth since 2000 and this sector has contributed to the creation of more decent and productive employment. Consistently areas like software, IT and financial services have generated high paid regular formal job opportunities.  Every year in India 7-8 million persons are joining the labour force and if they can be productively employed then it will give a huge boost to the Indian growth story. The worry according to survey has been that youth employment is, by and large, of poorer quality than employment for adults. Educated youth are more likely to look for employment outside agriculture and to provide them jobs accordingly is the challenge before the policy makers. The report shockingly found that in 2022 the unemployment rate among the youth with secondary level education was six times higher than the average and for graduates this figures was found to be 9 times greater at 29.1%.  It is a fact that youths with higher level of education look for regular salaried jobs and those with little education are engaged more in casual or informal work. Youths with technical degrees are more likely to be employed in the tertiary sector. Returns to education are low at lower levels of education and highest for those with a graduate degree or technical education. More and more young boys and girls are seeking a higher level of education. The fact is that educational attainment among the youth has improved significantly in the past two decades. A disturbing thing is that the level and quality of employment has shown a lot of disparities.  States like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha found that the youth are not able to fully take advantage of demographic factor whereas the situation is much better in the Southern and Western states. It is also a fact that states are at different stages of demographic transition which influences their employment outcomes. These regional disparities will have to be handled so that the entire country is able to move forward on the path of growth with employment.

Some areas of employment will lose out to Artificial Intelligence and other technological disruptions. However, it is also true that new jobs would be created and the education system and skilling ecosystem will have to tailor their inputs in a manner that the students are equipped with the skills that would make them employable in the future. The issue of employability of the youth is often raised by industry though academicians tend to challenge this by saying that they provide education which is different from training. It cannot be denied that there is a gap in perception between the two which can only be bridged by both parties sitting together. The youth must get employment opportunities and high quality employment. The policies regarding industrialization and other sectors will have to make provision of employment their cornerstone. Above all, as I have advocated before, India needs a national employment policy to enjoy the fruits of the demographic dividend.

The debate between growth and equity is an age old one and one which has occupied the minds of the economists for decades. Ever since I began to study the subject of economics almost 50 years ago when I was a student of economics honours at Delhi University I recall that we used to discuss and have divergent opinions on whether growth should be the objective of economic development for countries or the focus should be on redistribution of resources to bring about equity. Those days the balance was in favour of a socialist economy and so, the emphasis was on measures to be taken to redistribute the resources within the economy to reduce inequality and usher a better quality of life for all. Progressive taxation was suggested by many as one of the major means of bringing about economic development with equity for all citizens. However, the 1970s and 80s showed that economic growth itself is of great importance because if the size of the pie will not be large enough then what will you redistribute.  The Indian economy because of its licence, Permit Raj and restrictive industrial policy and trade policy had reached a stage by 1991 when if it did not reform itself it would have become one of the really poor performers amongst the economies of the world. India was in the throes of a serious economic crisis. The 1991 reforms are perhaps one of the most important policy decisions in the contemporary Indian economic history because this opened up the Indian economy and the vast number of changes that one sees in the economy today are because of this opening up. I recall before this there used to be only Fiat and Ambassador cars in the country and  Maruti  had just about made an appearance. However, after 1991 with the opening up of the economy we can now look around and see the huge number of cars and car makers around so that the customer is now having a problem of choice. This is the story in any sector of the economy if one looks around, therefore, one can say that the 1991 reforms took India on the path of progress and development. Today in 2024 if we are the fifth largest economy in the world, we can give a lot of credit for that to the reforms of 1991 which set in motion a certain economic momentum.

Whereas it is good to exult about the growth in the Indian economy which at about 7% today is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, we should also be concerned about the fact that inequalities in the economy are rising every day. World inequality lab did a study and according to them the income inequality in India is high and continuously on the rise. Their data shows that in 2022-23, 22.6% of India’s national income went to just 1% in the country which is the highest in the last 100 years.  Further the top 0.1% of the population earned nearly 10% of the national income in India.

In terms of wealth inequality the report says that the top 1% has a share of 40.1% in the wealth of the country which is at the highest level since 1961. The share of wealth among the top 10% increased from 45% in 1961 to 65% in 2022-23 and conversely the share of the bottom 50% declined. The scenario is clear- the rich have become richer and the poor relatively poorer. India’s wealth inequality is not as extreme as that of Brazil and South Africa but its incomes inequality is amongst the highest in the world and this would ultimately lead to wealth the inequality.

Paradoxically, between 1960 and 1980 when the growth rate in India was very low the inequality was dropping. It began increasing with the liberalisation of the economy after 1991. It is also interesting to note that the growth in China has been much more broad- based than India with the share of top 1% in income in India being nearly 50% higher than that of China in 2022.

Some people have argued against the data and analysis of the world inequality lab. There are others like the famous economist Thomas Piketty who has argued that increasing the level of taxes could be the answer. The preliminary data from the latest household consumption survey 2022-23 shows a decline in consumption inequality compared to the 2011-12 survey though it needs to be verified once the final data is released. My reaction is that we may quibble over the data but there is no denying that India is facing income and wealth inequality and this is not something to feel very happy about. It is also true that we can look around and see the display of wealth by the “ noveau riche” as a visible indicator of inequality as pointed out by Ajay Chhibber in his article on “An agenda for next Government” in the Business Standard.

Inequality leads to social tensions and makes a large number of people in the country unhappy. Providing a good quality of life to its citizens and thereby make them feel happy must be the avowed goal of public policy in India. Therefore, it is essential to take policy measures to reduce inequality without sacrificing on growth. However, I do not feel that increasing the level of taxation is the answer because countless times in the past in India and in other countries it has been shown that high level of taxation acts as a disincentive for wealth creation and growth.

The human development report (HDR) 2023-24 paints a dismal picture for India by ranking it 134 out of 193 countries. The HDR ranks countries on the parameters of health, education and quality of life. Santosh Mehrotra an eminent economist has calculated that India’s score in HDR comes down by 31.1% only on account of the economic inequality factor. He is clearly of the view that the poor cannot wait for the benefits of economic growth to trickle down. The solution lies in focusing on health, nutrition and education to develop the capacity of our human capital and make sure that India reaps the benefits of its demographic advantage. If we do so then we will be able to provide equality of opportunity to our youth and ensure gainful and productive employment for them. It is only growth with employment which will pave the way for India to move forward on the development path without having to face the ordeal of increasing inequality leading to general dissatisfaction in the people.  India needs inclusive and sustainable growth.

Two very significant and relevant International reports have just been released- the world happiness report (WHR) 2023-24 and the human development report (HDR) 2024. Both are indicators of the level of development of various countries and the quality of life of the people living in them. The HDR ranks the countries on three factors- the average healthy life expectancy, mean years of schooling and quality of life. It is a measure of the health, education and quality of life levels of the people living in different countries and is based on data that is available with the countries concerned. The WHR, on the other hand, is based on a Gallup poll survey where questions are put to a representative sample size in each country on five variables which are healthy life expectancy, social security which means you have someone to count on, freedom to make life choices, generosity and perception about corruption. In addition there is a 6^th variable which is gross domestic product (GDP) per capita which is taken from the data available with various countries.

India’s rank in the WHR is 126^th out of 143 countries which means that India is amongst the unhappiest countries. One may have issues with this ranking particularly since Pakistan and Nepal are shown as being happier than India which is a little difficult to accept. However, these rankings are based on a survey and it is also a fact that ever since world happiness surveys started in 2012 India has consistently been ranked at the bottom of the pile. Finland has been ranked as the happiest country for at least the last five years and has maintained the top position in WHR 2024 also. It is followed by Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Israel. The report points out that the survey regarding Israel was done before the Hamas attack and the resultant conflict. While United Kingdom is at the 20^th place, USA and Germany have dropped out of the top 20 for the first time and have been ranked 23^rd and 24^th respectively.

This year the WHR has also tried to do a correlation of age with happiness in different countries. It finds that there is a lower level of happiness in people born after 1980. However, the association between age and happiness varies according to region. For instance, in general the young are happier than the old in many regions while in Western Europe the happiness level is the same for old and young but in North America the old are happier than the younger people. For India they found that old age is associated with higher life satisfaction and older women have a lower level of life satisfaction than older men. The caste factor comes into play for India with upper castes being generally happier than other castes. Also, those who have completed at least secondary education are happier than those who have not been educated. For India as well as the entire world the WHR 2024 finds that there is an increase in the inequality of happiness.

In the ranking of countries on happiness amongst the young people below the age of 30 for the period 2021-2023 the WHR finds that Lithuania gets the highest rank followed by Israel, Serbia, Iceland and Denmark. Finland is at the 7^th position while UK slips down to the 32^nd position and most surprisingly USA gets the 62^nd rank. China is 79^th while India is ones again at the lower end being ranked 127^th. WHR 2024 then ranked countries according to happiness for old people whose age is greater than 60 years. Denmark turned out to be the country having the happiest old people followed by Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. In this ranking USA is at the 10^th position and China is 30^th. This shows that the older people in USA and China are far happier than the younger ones. Unfortunately, India continues to languish at the 121^st position. It seems that the old and the young are equally unhappy in India though the report says that the young are happier than the middle age people in India. The happiness ranked for the old people in India is slightly better than that for the younger ones.

The HDR 2024 also does not present a good picture about India with the Indian rank being 134 out of 192. These rankings should act as a wake-up call for our public policy makers. It should set them thinking that in terms of GDP we are the 5^th largest economy in the world poised to become the 3^rd largest by 2028 and being recognized all over the world for its annual growth rate of about 7% and currently being the fastest growing economy of the world. In terms of per capita income India ranks 140^th in the world and this could be a possible explanation for the low happiness rankings. Also, the inequality both social and economic is high in India which would be contributing to a lower level of happiness. The HDR rank clearly shows that health and education are the most important components of human development and India must prioritise both in its development agenda.  We must be concerned with an overall improvement in the quality of life of the people rather than just be satisfied with high GDP and growth rate. Many thinkers and economists have argued that GDP is an imperfect measure of development because it does not taken to account all that is important for improving the quality of human life. Simon Kuznets who has done pioneering work in studying the development of countries was clear that GDP was limited in trying to explain development. Kuznets wrote “the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income”. The most scathing attack on GDP came from Bobby Kennedy who was a candidate for the president of United States.

He said “GDP measures neither our wit nor our courage, ; neither our wisdom nor our learning ; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country ; it measures everything but that which makes life worthwhile”.

Bhutan came out with a gross national happiness index several years ago and United Nations has also recognized the importance of happiness index as a measure of human welfare and has declared 20^th March as the international day of happiness. India must also factor in the domains of health, education, diversity, resilience, good governance, environment and living standards in their policy making if we want to see our country as a happier one and where the human development index is high and people enjoy a good quality of life and have a positive feeling of wellbeing. Despite all the misgivings about the methodology of computing the index, we cannot deny that Indian policy makers must work at making India a happier country.

Hearing and watching the debates in the parliament and UP State assembly over the last few days on the Budget and the address of the honorable President of India and Governor respectively it struck me that, perhaps, the most important area of discussion should have been the status of education. India is a young nation with a median age of 29 and a major proportion of the population falling in the category of youth. If equity in education is not pursued as a cherished goal then we will be doing a great disservice to the nation. The road map to make India a developed nation has to put education at the very top of its agenda. If we cannot impart quality education to our youth then we will not able to provide social justice, economic development and political empowerment to all sections of society and the aspiration of India to become a developed nation would remain a dream.

There is cause for concern about the learning outcomes of our children at the school level and even at the higher education level. The greatest worry should be about our school children who evidently do not even possess the foundational literacy and numeracy skills. The recent ASER (Annual status of Education Report) 2023 surveyed youth in the age group of 14 to 18 years in which it found that the position regarding enrollment in the age group of 14 to 18 year old is reasonably good but for the 18 year old it is 32.6 % which is definitely on the lower side and means that a large proportion would enter the working age population without high school education. It is also disturbing to note that most of the young people in this age group were enrolled in the humanities stream (55.7%) followed by STEM at 31.7%. These children in the humanities stream are likely to have issues of employment in a job environment where technology is the disruptive force. Only 5.6% of the youth are taking vocational training further hindering their job prospects.

Regarding foundational skills of these youth in the age group of 14 to 18 about 25 % cannot read a standard II level text in the regional language. Only 43.3% can do simple division and only a little over half can read sentences in English and most of them do not understand the meaning of what they are reading. The functional application of knowledge is also not of the required level. The survey strongly brings out the point that the youth is not being equipped with essential knowledge and skills. The report clearly focuses on the point that India will not be able to make full use of its demographic dividend as these young people will not be able to contribute according to their innate ability.

The above survey report regarding the youth in the 14 to 18 age group suggests that the Governments both at the centre and the states will have to take remedial teaching packages for them so that they come up to the desired level. This will call for a reorientation of teaching at the secondary school level. If this is not done then these children will not be in a position to pursue higher education without which it is not possible for India to become a knowledge economy and becoming a developed nation would remain an unfulfilled dream. It is also important that facilities for science education increase and in accordance with the national education policy 2020 (NEP) more youth opt for vocational education so that they become employable. My view is that as brought out in the NEP the youth should be encouraged to take cross functional courses and not be pursuing only humanities or science. Students of humanities need to have full exposure to computers and related courses so that they do not become victims of digital divide. In fact courses in coding and basic computer knowledge should be introduced from the class 6 level.

The aim of the NEP is that the GER (Gross Enrollment ratio) which is currently at 26.3% should be raised to 50% by 2035. This is not only a laudable goal but also essential for India’s development. However if the level of students at the secondary school level is qualitatively so poor then how will they become feeders to the higher education stream?

Incidentally, if we take the ASER report of 2022  regarding age group 6 to 14 There is an improvement in the  level of enrollment at early childhood and primary educational level but the learning outcomes leave a lot to be desired.  The worrying part as that the children’s basic knowledge of arithmetic and language is still very poor and the alarming thing is that it has declined over the 2018 level. This can be attributed to the damaging effect of the pandemic. For instance the proportion of children of class 5 who could read a class 2 level text fell from 50.5% in 2018 to 42.8% in 2022. Similarly the children in class 5 who could do simple division questions have fallen from 27.9% in 2018to 25.6% in 2022. These children require special attention in the form of summer school or extra classes. My personal experience with literacy programmes has been that there are a lot of volunteers amongst the senior school and college going boys and girls at the village level and city level who can be roped in to provide this remedial education. In fact, I have often felt that students in institutions of higher learning should be mandated to adopt primary schools to improve the learning outcome at that level.

It is clear that the quality of education being imparted at the school level do not fulfill the criteria of either equity or quality. A mission approach which does not work in silos and with specific parameter of learning outcomes to be achieved within a specified time frame is the need of the hour. The political will to do this is essential and this should be a major narrative in the manifestos of the political parties. Administrative leadership and making quality teachers available along with using modern techniques would be required to implement things at the ground level where the real problem lies. Education is the single most important factor which will push India into the take-off path to be coming a developed nation and make this century rightfully an Indian One.

Civil servants in general and IAS and IPS officers in particular would welcome the decision of the Honorable Supreme court in the SLP filed by the State of Uttar Pradesh on the matter of personal appearance of officers being desired by the honorable courts in contempt matters or to assist the court. The specific cause of action were two orders of the division bench of the High court of judicature at Allahabad relating to the exercise of criminal contempt jurisdiction and the practice of frequent summoning of Government officials to court. It had transpired that in the matter relating to post retirement benefits to honorable Chief Justice and Judges of High Court, the high court had issued certain directions and finance department of UP Government had not complied with them and had instead questioned them. The high court had directed that officials of finance department present in the court be taken into custody and had issued bailable warrants to ensure presence of the Chief Secretary and the additional Chief Secretary in the court on the next day. The honorable Supreme Court said that the invocation of criminal contempt and taking the Government official into custody was not warranted. It concluded that the conduct of the high court in frequently summoning officers to exert pressure on the Government under threat of contempt is impermissible.

The honorable Supreme Court also framed SOP’s on personal appearance of Government officials in Court proceedings. It was of the view that in most cases instead of calling the officers the issue could be addressed through affidavits and other documents. Only if it is felt that specific information required by the Court is being deliberately withheld by the concerned officer then there is cause for calling for the personal appearance of the officer concerned. It has been my experience that going to the Court when summoned often leads to spending the entire day in travelling and in the process. The Supreme Court has said that as the first option the Court should allow the officer to appear before it through video conferencing. This would definitely save a lot of valuable time. The Court further said that as far as possible a specific times lot should be kept for addressing matters where the personal appearance of an officer is mandated. It also said that the Government officials participating in the proceedings need not stand throughout the hearing. These are also very welcome directions as often officers have to wait the entire day for the case to be heard and most often they are not even provided a chair to sit on. In a lighter vein I recall that a senior officer of the secondary education department of UP was called by the Court so often that he actually set up a table and chair near the Court and disposed of  official work as he would have to wait for his case to be heard for the best part of the day.

Recently there have been instances when officers have faced comments by the Court on their dress or demeanor. This has been most unfortunate and has demoralized the senior officers. Supreme Court has viewed this tendency with concern and said that during the course of the proceedings no oral remarks with the intention of humiliating the officials will be passed. The Supreme Court has further added that the courts shall refrain from making comments on the physical appearance, educational background or social standing of the official appearing before it. It advised the court to cultivate an environment of respect and professionalism. The officers and the members of the judiciary are respected representatives of the executive and the judicial arm of a democratic Government respectively and I feel it is essential that there is mutual respect between them. I personally remember the numerous occasions when I had to travel from Lucknow to Allahabad to be physically present in the court and this often amounted to a loss of more than one day. Further had it not been for the consideration shown by a very amiable joint registrar protocol of the High Court one would have had to spend the entire day standing inside or just outside the Court.

The orders of the Court must be complied with and for this the senior officers of the Government should be held accountable. Very often non compliance or not taking action on time is a result of negligence of the junior officers of the department concerned. I used to handle this by having a register of all Court orders maintained in my office even when I was Chief Secretary and one official was specifically made responsible for monitoring time bound action. I used to personally review this register once every fortnight. This kind of a practice should be followed by all senior officers. Sometimes I discovered that there used to be collusion between the person who had got the orders from the Court and the lower level officers in the secretariat. The officers would not put up the matter before their seniors deliberately for obvious reasons and wait for notice of contempt from the court. The idea being that the moment a contempt notice comes the officers concerned hurriedly try to comply and no time is left for serious examination of the order and consider making a review application or going in appeal. The answer to this lies once again in very detailed monitoring by the senior officers and fixing responsibility on the junior officers if they have deliberately avoided putting up the matter for necessary action.

It is also true, as the honorable Supreme Court has observed, that there is a process involved at the Government level in complying with Court orders. Wherever there is a financial involvement the concurrence of the finance department is essential and often higher orders up to the level of the Chief Minister have to be taken. The courts must give reasonable time for compliance of their orders. Also, as the honorable Supreme Court has pointed out the Court should not take it adversely if the officer comes back to the courts with the request for review or modification of order. The point that should be understood is that hardly any officer would willfully disobey the orders of the court. The Supreme Court has put this in perspective by observing that the concerned court should evaluate instances of non compliance taking into account to procedural delays or technical reasons. It should give appropriate extension if required to facilitate compliance.

These SOP’s issued by the Supreme Court will go a long way in allowing the officers to carry out their work with integrity and without any sense of undue fear. The officers must also show respect to the court orders and monitor them personally. A relationship of mutual respect between senior executive officers of the Government and the judiciary will certainly make for more effective Governance .

Dust seems to have settled on the furious debate that was triggered by the statement of Sri Narayan Murthy that the Indian youth needs to put in seventy hours of work every day if India is to realise its goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047. The intent behind what Mr. Murthy said is quite clear and I agree with his thought process. Nothing in life is achieved without persistent and dedicated hard work and if India is to keep its date with destiny then its leaders, managers and officers have to put in a lot of effort.

Many leaders from the corporate world came out vociferously in support of the statement made by Mr. Murthy. On the other side of the spectrum a lot of young managers were critical of this comment as they felt that this kind of a work schedule will not leave any time to do anything else and completely destroy the work life balance. Incidentally, I was addressing students at a reputed management institute and I deliberately raised this issue about the statement of Mr. Murthy. I was surprised to find that the students were almost in unanimous agreement that seventy hours of work every week is neither possible nor desirable. They felt that this would seriously undermine the concept of work life balance and lead to early burnout and disruption of family life and even lead to physical and mental health issues. On the other hand I had a discussion with some senior level corporate managers who not only strongly agreed with Mr. Murthy but also were very critical of the younger generation’s attitude towards work.

I feel the statement has not been appreciated in its proper context. Seventy Hours was just a number indicating that a lot of hard work has to be put in by the youth. It does not in any way say that one has to ignore one’s responsibility to the family or health or any other aspect of life. It is simply talking about having a commitment to one’s work and emphasizing a truism that there is no substitute for hard work if an individual or a nation has to progress at a rapid pace. It is true that average working hours per week in the western nations is lesser than that prevailing in India. In fact a country like France works 35 Hours a week whereas the corresponding figure for India is about 48-49 Hours. It is thus true that Indians are working harder than their western counter parts. However, it is also a fact that the productivity of the Indian work force is much less and also that we are, as a nation, at a different level of economic development. The managers in developed countries assign great value to leisure whereas India has not reached the stage where it can factor leisure as a necessary part of life.

Having established the significance of putting in hard work I must point out that it is important not only to work hard but to work smart. If the time is not managed properly and the work is not efficiently organized then any number of hours will not lead to better results. The idea is to get the maximum out of the effort made because this is the only way to enhance productivity which is the essence of the problem facing India today. This requires a culture of developing leaders and not only managers. Of course, efficient management of human, financial and technological resources to achieve the desire goals is necessary but the current disruptive environment requires all our corporate managers and civil servants to perform at a different level and with a far greater degree of dynamism and responsiveness. They must inculcate the qualities of leaders. A leader must have a vision for the organization or his department and have the capacity to align all members of his team with the goal. She should have the ability to motivate and inspire her team members to a higher level of performance. A culture of prompt decision making is the need of the hour and the capacity to translate vision into reality. All this is possible only if the leader possesses excellent communication skills and has positive problem solving approach. The leader must be willing to take initiative to drive new ideas and encourage creativity in her team members. The leader today must not only be aware of the rapid technological changes taking place around her but also be able to understand them and harness them for the benefit of her organization. The leader to be more productive must realise that it is people who should use technology and the fact that people skills are of paramount importance for the leader to be able to promise a better future for all. This requires the human resource in the organization to be motivated and happy.

Happy employees are always more productive and this is where it is necessary to see an employee not merely as a human resource but in a holistic manner as a human being. Qualities of emotional intelligence and, in particular, those of empathy and compassion are required to make each member of the team feel valued and given the self belief to perform at his best. This means that the issue of work life balance needs to be addressed in a positive manner because a human being can not be made to perform like a machine. There is a trend in many organizations to put excessive pressure on the managers by setting impossible deadlines and creating a toxic work culture. This leads to mental health issues due to stress and anxiety and eventual burn out which is detrimental not only for the manager but also for the organization. Besides, an organization must give time and space for a manager to grow by developing his innate strengths and learning new things. The time must be given to sharpen the saw for better results. Moreover, creativity requires a manager to be away from the constant pressure of daily work and think freely. This is possible only if the work environment is conducive to development of new ideas and the manager also is feeling inner peace and harmony to be able to think creatively.

The question, then, is not about the number of hours of work put in but the results that you get out of the work. Greater and better results are possible if the work culture is participative, creative and non-hierarchical. India has a young work force and it must reap the demographic dividend if it has to join the group of developed nations. It must get the best performance out of its youth. This is possible only if the work culture is congenial and work force enthused about its work. We need a happy work environment to make the work force more productive and propel the organizations and the country to a faster and higher track of growth.